Lack of Trump endorsement rocks GOP Senate primary in Texas

WASHINGTON — It’s rare for President Donald Trump to sit out a political horse race. But his lack of an endorsement so far in the bitter Republican Senate primary in Texas has created ripples from the Lone Star State all the way up to Washington.

Polls have shown longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the March 3 primary, which also includes Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt. Despite pushes from Republican leadership and their fundraising arms to back Cornyn, Trump has resisted doing so with early voting already underway.

Cornyn’s opponents have welcomed the decision, but it’s created frustration back in D.C. for the senator’s supporters, who are now also staring down a May runoff election, with none of the candidates likely to get more than 50% of the vote next week.

Senate GOP leadership and its campaign arms have long viewed Cornyn as the best candidate to win in a general election against either Rep. Jasmine Crockett or state Rep. James Talarico, who are locked in a fierce battle for the Democratic nomination. Republicans have already dumped tens of millions into keeping Cornyn afloat in the primary, and a feisty runoff would burn more cash that would be better spent outside Texas to help Republicans keep control of the Senate.

“They’ve all supported me. They’re all good, and you’re supposed to pick one, so we’ll see what happens. But I support all three,” Trump said last week of Paxton, Cornyn and Hunt.

Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University, said that with the three candidates “within relative striking distance of each other, a Trump endorsement would have, if not, sealed the deal, gone a long way towards it.”

“But the way I read it, the person who really needs the Trump endorsement is John Cornyn in particular,” he said.

His toughest fight

Cornyn has been a fixture in Texas Republican politics for decades. He served on the Texas Supreme Court and as state attorney general, before his election to the Senate in 2002. He’s been comfortably reelected since, including by 10 points in 2020.

Still, recent surveys have found Cornyn struggling against Paxton, and Hunt’s entry into the race has all but ensured the primary is heading toward a May 26 runoff.

Senate GOP leadership and the fundraising arms have made several requests to Trump for a Cornyn endorsement, according to several people familiar with the outreach.

Cornyn has maintained support from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which traditionally backs incumbents. He’s built deep relationships throughout the top ranks in the Senate, having served as the chamber’s No. 2 GOP leader and as NRSC chairman.

“I’m supporting and have endorsed and am doing everything I can to help Sen. John Cornyn,” Thune said at a news conference at the Capitol this month. “He’s a very effective conservative senator for the state of Texas, and does a lot of good things for our country on so many issues.”

Despite those conservative bona fides, Cornyn has at times crossed party lines before to negotiate on issues such as immigration, criminal justice and gun policy. For example, he helped pass a gun safety bill in 2022 after a school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, killed 19 students and two teachers.

Cornyn has also had a hot-and-cold relationship with Trump, including over the senator pushing back against the president’s false claims that the 2020 election had been stolen.

Finding the MAGA lane

Now, with two MAGA-friendly Republicans facing Cornyn, the Senate primary has rocketed to become the second-most expensive on record, with total ad spending surpassing $98 million, according to AdImpact.

But the money Cornyn-aligned groups are spending on his behalf risks taking away from competitive matchups in states such as Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.

There’s a reason Republicans in Washington are spending big to boost Cornyn: Paxton, who has vowed to be a disruptor and take on the “D.C. establishment,” has been embroiled in a series of political and personal controversies. Those include his wife divorcing him on “biblical grounds,” being impeached — but later acquitted — by the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature over misconduct, bribery and corruption charges; and being investigated by the Texas State Bar over his role in trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

Internal leadership polling has shown Crockett and Talarico competitive in a general election against Paxton — in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate election in nearly 40 years.

On the trail in Austin this month, Cornyn warned that Republicans would suffer an “Election Day massacre” if Paxton is the nominee: “We risk losing the Senate seat, losing the majority in the House of Representatives, and it will take a toll on everybody on the ballot,” he said.

That aligned with Thune’s remarks from earlier this month: “We think that John Cornyn not only deserves to be reelected but also ensures that Texas stays in (the) Republican column when it comes to the United States Senate.”

Neither the Paxton nor Hunt campaign has had consistent communications with Senate Republican leadership or with its fundraising arms in months. A person close to the Hunt campaign said SLF threatened to spend millions against the congressman if he got in a race. CQ Roll Call has reached out to SLF for a response.

Hunt said on Fox News on Sunday that “D.C. does not decide who the next senator of Texas is going to be. The people of Texas are, and I’m giving them the best option.”

Of die-hards and runoffs

Part of the concern for national Republicans is that runoffs can be extremely expensive and turnout is generally smaller, attracting base voters, many of whom would be more likely to support Paxton.

While Trump has not made an endorsement, two prominent people in his orbit — consultant Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio, the president’s pollster — have been in Texas helping Cornyn, according to a source.

“We have a plan to win this election and we are executing it. Sen. Cornyn works closely with the Trump team and is proud to have voted with him 99.3% while in office,” Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said in a statement.

But for now, the candidates may need to wait for the runoff to earn that coveted Trump endorsement.

“A Trump endorsement is likely pivotal and determines the outcome of the May runoff. If he endorses Cornyn, Cornyn has a very good chance of victory,” said Jones, the Rice University professor.

“Conversely, if Trump does not endorse, then Ken Paxton remains the clear front-runner, with a clear pathway to victory,” he added.

_____