Latino voters across the country — a surprising part of Donald Trump’s coalition in 2024 — are now extremely dissatisfied with the president and his policies, a new poll shows.

But that is not so much true in Florida, where Cubans remain a bastion of GOP support.

In a nationwide survey of Latino voters conducted by Florida International University’s Latino Public Opinion Forum, 67% of respondents disapproved of Trump and nearly the same amount said the country is on the wrong track, with three major concerns rising to the forefront: cost of living, immigration and health care costs.

Trump’s net approval rating among Latino voters — the proportion of those who approve of his presidency minus the proportion who disapprove — is negative 36 percentage points, the survey found. But in Florida he was down by only 10 points, the smallest gap in any state measured.

Trump won the 2024 election thanks in part to a wave of Hispanic voters, enough in Central Florida to flip the majority Hispanic Osceola County, once solidly Democratic, to the GOP column. According to a Pew Research Center study of exit polls, 42% of Latinos nationally voted for Trump that year — a marked increase from both 2016 and 2020 — and 56% of Latino voters in Florida cast a ballot for Trump.

However, the tide seems to have shifted as the issue of affordability, where Trump has struggled to find a resonant message, is now one of the demographics’ top concerns.

The survey, conducted in March, polled more than 1,000 Latino voters. Just over 27% said inflation and the cost of living were their main worries, ahead of 15.7% most concerned about immigration and 14% prioritizing health-care costs.

Trump’s support among most Hispanic voter sub-groups is scant, with his net approval minus 53 points among Puerto Ricans, minus 48 points among Mexican Americans and minus 39 points among voters of South American background. But the president is up more than 23 points with those of Cuban descent.

Cubans, who have historically been the Republican Party’s most supportive Latino demographic, make up the largest number of Hispanic voters in Florida and are the “loudest” constituency, said Maria Puerta-Riera, a Valencia College politics professor from Venezuela.

Of the 2.6 million Cuban Americans in the United States, 64% of them call Florida home, according to the Pew Research Center.

Many Cuban Americans disapprove strongly of the government in the island nation they or their ancestors fled. The Trump administrations’ oil blockade, sharp-edged negotiations with the island’s government and threats of invasion are likely key factors why Cubans in Florida continue to lean Republican, Puerta-Riera said.

“Among Cuban Americans there is still a very significant portion of the community that rejects the Democratic party, not just because of the ‘socialism’ rhetoric,” Puerta-Riera said. “It’s more likely [that] they consider the Republican party closer to their aspirations.”

Cubans are the largest Latino group in the Florida electorate, she said, partly due to what had been a preferential immigration status for refugees from the island. Colombian Americans, another significant sub-group in Florida, are also a demographic that leans GOP, she added.

Erin Huntley, the GOP chair of Orange County, said Latino groups support Republicans because of their shared traditional conservative values, such as faith and family.

“When everyone comes together, those are the values that align,” Huntley said.

Still, there’s a shift in mood among Florida voters of all ethnicities. A clear example is last month’s Democratic seat flip in the special state House election representing Trump’s Mar-A-Lago district. Democrat Emily Gregory upset Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples by about 2.4 percentage points, according to the AP.

“There are some signs that even here in Florida, there is at least the perception that something is brewing,” Puerta-Riera said.

Another shift may come as the Trump administration continues its record number of Cuban deportations. Over 1,600 Cubans were deported in 2025, more than double the previous year, the New York Times reported recently.

Still, 71% of Cuban American voters in the FIU survey broadly backed Trump’s deportation policies, helping make Florida one of the only states where a majority of Latino respondents supported it.

Huntley said the Palm Beach flip is temporary and predicted the seat will return to Republicans come the midterms. It has happened before, she said, such as when the 2024 special election of Orlando Democrat Tom Keen in state House District 35 flipped a seat held by a Republican. But in the general election, Republican Erika Booth won the seat back.

“Special elections are special and have a much lower turnout, whether it be a primary or a November election,” Huntley said. “I’m confident that in November John Maples will be elected to that seat.”

Puerta-Riera, though, believes Latino swing voters may sit out midterms this year — posing a challenge for the GOP even if they retain their conservative alignment.

“The Latino community is among the most hurt by an economic crisis,” Puerta-Riera said. “I think the Republican party fears that people are very frustrated but very ideological, and just won’t vote.”

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