Spending blitz shakes up race for Republican stronghold in southern Minnesota

Sydney Kashiwagi, Star Tribune on Oct 30, 2026

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Republicans and Democrats have poured millions of dollars into the race for southern Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District in the closing weeks of the campaign, a spending spree that some say indicates an increasingly tight contest.

Since mid-October, Democrat Jake Johnson has benefited from more than $3 million in outside spending, including a $2.2 million investment this week in TV ads from the House Majority PAC, an independent expenditure group that boosts House Democrats, according to a review of Federal Election Committee filings.

In that same period, two-term Republican U.S. Rep. Brad Finstad has been boosted by more than $3 million from outside groups, the filings show. That includes the backing of groups aligned with President Donald Trump in recent weeks, with $1.4 million from the No Going Back PAC and more than $20,000 from MAGA Inc.

The 1st District contest is the only congressional race in Minnesota that has attracted that level of attention from national political groups in the general election, even with an open seat up for grabs in the Second District in the southern Twin Cities suburbs.

The southern Minnesota district has been solidly Republican in recent elections. Trump won it three times, including by a 12-point margin in 2024, and Finstad beat his Democratic opponent that year by more than 17 points.

But Democrats have become bullish on their chances in the largely rural district as Republicans continue to face political headwinds over tariffs, higher gas, diesel and fertilizer costs and concerns about rural healthcare.

Several nonpartisan political analytics groups have shifted their predictions in the closing weeks, in part because they say the influx of money could make a difference. Cook Political Report, which tracks races across the country, recently changed its assessment of the race from “likely R” to “lean R.”

“The media market here is relatively cheap compared to other places, so, a super PAC’s impact of coming in and being able to air some ads is stronger than it would if this district was in the Houston media market or some of the other bigger places,” said Erin Covey, a U.S. House editor at Cook Political Report.

The last Democrat to hold the 1st District seat was Gov. Tim Walz, who represented the area in congress for six terms until he ran for governor in 2018. Like many rural districts, its voters have favored more conservative candidates, including Trump, in recent elections.

But the race began to attract national attention earlier this year as polling and fundraising showed it to be potentially competitive. Democrats’ optimism was also buoyed by U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s decision to run for governor. Klobuchar won more votes in the district during her last Senate race, and she is widely seen as someone who can boost other DFLers on the ticket, especially in redder parts of the state.

Throughout the campaign, Johnson has criticized Finstad for his support of several Trump administration policies, including tariffs and the war in Iran, arguing they have pushed up the cost of living and made life especially tough for farmers. He’s also hammered Finstad for not holding in-person town halls.

“Voters across the political spectrum are ready for someone who will fight to lower costs, and they’re tired of Brad Finstad putting corporate donors ahead of southern Minnesota,” he said in a written statement.

Finstad has defended his support for the Trump administration’s actions and accused Johnson of supporting tax increases. Republicans have also tried to tie Johnson to the Walz administration’s fraud crisis, a central theme of Republican campaigns throughout Minnesota this year.

Republican state Sen. Steve Drazkowski of Mazeppa said he isn’t convinced that Johnson has a chance, and he believes the attacks on Finstad won’t work in a district where Trump remains popular.

“I think they’re very mistaken,” he said of Democrats’ optimism. “I think the people of our district like the direction our country has been going.”

Finstad agrees, saying in a written statement that though voters have long made the district competitive, “I am confident they will elect me for another two-year term to keep fighting for them.”

Still, David Sturrock, a political science professor at Southwest Minnesota State University and a former official in the Minnesota Republican Party, notes that the district also has a history of “getting impatient with incumbents.”

“History suggests that in that district, you have a parabola,” Sturrock said. “An incumbent can go up over time, but then eventually there’s a shelf life that kicks in, and so that’s the question for Brad this time.”