Analysis: 15 lessons from the midterms as Democrats rebound with historic wave

WASHINGTON — It wasn’t exactly a surprise that Democrats did well on Tuesday, but the breadth and depth of their victory was stunning. Votes are still being counted, but it’s looking like a massive blue wave with very few Republican survivors.

Just two years ago, Donald Trump delivered one of the biggest Republican victories in recent history. The GOP won back the White House, finished ahead in the national popular vote, recaptured the Senate majority and held on to the House. But what Republicans thought was a permanent realignment of the party coalitions crumbled under the weight of an unpopular war in the Middle East and voter frustrations over the economy and president’s economic policies.

The complete analysis will come in the weeks and months ahead, but here are a few initial thoughts.

— Trump is a political mortal. Despite the pervasive narrative that normal political rules don’t apply to the president, election night showed that is simply not true. Sure, he was a surprise victor in 2016, but as an unpopular sitting president in 2018, his party lost a net of 40 House seats. When he ran for reelection in 2020, again as an unpopular president, he lost. When he got to run against an unpopular Democratic administration in 2024, he won again. And when his job approval rating sank to historic lows, his party was routed in the midterms.

— Polls pointed in the right direction. Despite a decade of ridicule and abuse, the polling industry had a good cycle. Of course, there were a few outliers, but much of the public and private data (at least on the Democratic side) pointed to a good midterm for Democrats. Surprise outcomes on Tuesday were likely more due to a lack of data than poor data. And, if anything, some surveys underestimated the support for Democratic candidates. Pollsters still have methodological challenges, particularly with low response rates, but it’s time to ditch the narrative that polls always underestimate Republicans.

— Democrats captured the Senate. Democrats are going to gain at least seven Senate seats: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. They might gain up to nine with wins in Alaska and Mississippi. (Both races haven’t been called as yet by The Associated Press). They needed to gain four seats for a majority. Our projection of a Democratic gain of four to six seats was directionally accurate but will fall at least slightly below the final tally.

— It could have been worse for Republicans. While it’s almost hard to believe, the night could have been a bigger catastrophe for the Senate GOP. Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow won the open seat by 2 points; appointed Florida Sen. Ashley Moody won by 3 points; and Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts was leading by 7 points as of Wednesday morning. If Sens. Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi or Dan Sullivan of Alaska survive, they’d do so by narrow margins. Meanwhile, Democrats didn’t really have any close calls, as they held Michigan (6 points as of Wednesday morning), Minnesota (10 points), New Hampshire (14 points) and Georgia (18 points).

— Democrats captured the House. While dozens of races remain uncalled by the AP, Democrats will gain the House majority as expected. But the size of the wave is going to be bigger than expected. Democrats will likely clear our projection of a net gain of 20 to 30 seats and could approach their 40-seat gain during Trump’s first midterm.

— Redistricting flopped for Republicans. Republicans are struggling to gain any of the seats they intentionally redrew to elect new members of their own party. Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas ended up as debacles for the GOP with near total domination by Democrats up and down the ballot, all in states Trump won just two years ago. North Carolina Republican Tim Moore is on track to lose a district that he helped draw for himself.

— It didn’t have to be this way. Even though Republicans are placing the early blame on history and inevitability, Tuesday’s results were not a foregone conclusion. Things could have been very different had Trump not started the conflict with Iran, which resulted in domestic economic hardship, or waged a tariff war with friendly countries. Or if he had limited his immigration policy to closing the border and deporting violent criminals in the country illegally. Republicans would have held the Senate, and it would have been an extremely close fight for the House. No matter who or what Republicans choose to blame, the party is here because of Trump.

— Sometimes history repeats itself. Twenty years ago, there was an unpopular Republican president in the White House with a war in the Middle East that was driving up fuel prices. Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress as Republicans lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats — a remarkably similar outcome to this cycle.

— Midterms portend the future, except when they don’t. Democrats had a great night this week but that’s no guarantee the success will continue. In their best-case scenario, 2026 could be the first part of a two-cycle wave, similar to 2006 and 2008, when Democrats expanded their House majority and won the White House. But 2028 could also look like 2012 in reverse, with Republicans bouncing back from a disastrous midterm as Democrats did after the 2010 tea party wave.

— Candidate quality is only a fraction of the story. Republicans can try to blame their candidates or campaigns, whether it’s Hyde-Smith, Ken Paxton in Texas or Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, but all of them would have won in a political environment in which the president was even modestly popular. Without Trump’s self-inflicted policy wounds, candidate quality would not have mattered as much for Republicans, and they could have exploited Democrats with vulnerabilities, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. Gina Hinojosa’s victory over GOP Greg Abbott in Texas, where Democrats also appear on track to sweep every other statewide race, is proof that Republican problems in the Lone Star State extended beyond Paxton’s baggage.

— The Trump coalition collapsed. The coalition that brought Republicans to the mountaintop didn’t stick around very long as the party lost ground among a host of key demographic groups that were supposed to be a permanent part of its voter bloc. Trump finished behind Kamala Harris by just 11 points among voters aged 18-29. Republican candidates lost those voters by 47 points on Tuesday, according to the exit polls. Trump finished 5 points behind Harris among Latino voters, but Republicans lost them by 27 points this year. Trump lagged Harris by just 3 points among independent voters but Republicans lost them by 17 points this week. Trump bested Harris among male voters by 12 points in 2024, but Republicans ran even with Democrats with this group on Tuesday. Republicans even lost ground among voters without a college degree. Trump was +13 against Harris in 2024, but Republicans were just +4 in the midterms.

— Personal brands matter until they don’t. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania’s 1st District came into the cycle with stellar reputations about bucking partisan trends, but both Republicans went down to defeat. Rep. Mike Lawler of New York’s 17th could join them. It’s just evidence that voters have a limited tolerance for voting against their own partisan tendencies.

— Pay attention to special elections. For two years, Democratic candidates significantly overperformed in special elections and regularly scheduled off-year elections. Republicans dismissed the results as “special,” finding excuses to explain them away. But that was a mistake. Their turnout problem was right in front of everyone for more than a year.

— Elections are humbling. Losing twice to Trump was a humbling experience for Democrats. Seeing most of those gains wiped out in a single night should be humbling for Republicans. But we’ll see what lessons each party chooses to take from these results.

— White evangelicals couldn’t save Republicans. White evangelical voters continue to be one of the most reliable pieces of the GOP coalition. After supporting Trump with 76 percent in 2020 and 82% in 2024, and Republican candidates with 83% in 2022, white evangelicals supported GOP candidates once again, with 82%. But turnout did not keep pace. According to the exit polls, white evangelicals made up 17% of the midterm electorate after consistently comprising around a quarter of voters for more than a decade.

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